A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds former President Donald Trump is the choice of 51% of registered voters and President Joe Biden is the choice of 49%. Among likely voters, Trump receives 52% and Biden 48%.
These results include voters who initially said they would vote for someone else or would not vote but were then asked their preference if they had to choose one of the two candidates. In the initial question, 13% said “someone else” or that they would not vote. Trump received initial support from 45%, and Biden was the initial choice of 42%.
The survey was conducted Feb. 5–15, interviewing 882 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 706, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.
The Marquette Law School Poll has seen a close race between Trump and Biden among registered voters since May 2023, when it began asking about a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 presidential election.
Nikki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina, holds a larger lead over Biden than does Trump, with 58% of registered voters supporting her and 42% supporting Biden.
Haley holds Republican support against Biden as well as Trump does, while attracting a substantial cross-over vote from Democrats. Independents support Haley by a substantial margin.
When the ballot question is expanded to include independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump receives 42% and Biden 39%. Kennedy is supported by 15%, West wins 3%, and Stein is the choice of 2%.
Complete poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll.
