A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds a close presidential race: former President Donald Trump receives 51% support and President Joe Biden gets 48% among registered voters, while Biden has a 51% advantage over Trump’s 49% among likely voters — those who say they are certain they will vote in the presidential election. The difference in advantage shows how the outcome of the election may be determined by the success of respective efforts to mobilize voters over the coming 13 months.
Those who say they are absolutely certain to vote make up 80% of registered voters and give Biden an edge, while the 20% of the sample who say they are less than certain to vote strongly favor Trump.
Biden is also favored among those who pay the most attention to politics, while Trump has the advantage among those less engaged by politics.
In contrast, those who say they are very or somewhat enthusiastic about the 2024 elections favor Trump, while those with less enthusiasm favor Biden.
The Marquette Law School Poll has seen a close race among registered voters since May. Likely voters were identified for the first time in this cycle in the September poll.
In a choice between Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, DeSantis is the choice of 51% to Biden’s 48% among registered voters. Like against Trump, Biden holds a small edge among likely voters, with 51% compared to 48% for DeSantis.
A significant share of voters are initially reluctant to choose between Biden or Trump. The share of reluctant voters had remained around 20–25% since the head-to-head question was first posed in November 2021. In the current poll, it has declined modestly, with 12% who say they would vote for someone else and 4% who say they wouldn’t vote.
Complete poll results are available online.
