A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey of registered voters finds President Joe Biden trailing against each of the top three potential Republican candidates, with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley leading Biden 55% to 45% among registered voters, former President Trump leading Biden 52% to 48% in the same category, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis holding a 51% to 49% advantage.
Among likely voters, Haley sees her advantage rise to 12 percentage points at 56–44. The Biden-DeSantis hypothetical does not change with likely voters, while Trump’s support decreases to 51% against Biden’s 49%. The Marquette Law School Poll has seen a close race between Trump and Biden among registered voters since May.
Among registered Republican voters, Trump maintains a substantial lead over all others in the primary field for the GOP nomination, with 54% of the total. DeSantis and Haley are tied at 12%.
Trump receives a higher share of Republican votes than does Biden among Democrats, while independents favor Trump.
In the Biden-DeSantis pairing, Republican support for DeSantis is a little higher than in Trump’s case, and Biden’s support among Democrats is also slightly higher than against Trump.
Haley holds Republican support as well as DeSantis does, while attracting a substantial crossover vote from Democrats. Independents are about evenly divided. Haley’s strength with Republicans combined with an ability to attract more Democratic voters than Trump or DeSantis accounts for her stronger overall support against Biden.
A significant share of voters are initially reluctant to choose between Biden or Trump, saying they would vote for “someone else” or wouldn’t vote. The share of these reluctant voters had remained around 20–25% since the question was first posed in November 2021.
When asked to choose, almost all respondents will make a choice of Biden or Trump. In November, among initially reluctant registered voters, 53% said they would pick Trump and 47% would definitely vote for Biden.
