IB 100: Dane County, Wisconsin Economic Forecast: July 2009 Results

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The companies, people and issues shaping business in Madison and the Capital Region.

IB partnered with Chamberlain Research Consultants (CRC) to poll a pre-selected group of 100 companies. Chamberlain researcher Tony Trout has been a tremendous help in structuring the questionnaire, summarizing the data, putting up a Web site for participants so they can get “live” data, and giving back to IB the summary statistics and commentary. President Sharon Chamberlain has made her staff available to us to provide the business community with new tools, and we thank CRC for its ongoing contributions to this project.

The IB100 group includes cross-industry, business-to-business, and business-to-consumer entities, and a few significant nonprofits. The first polling was done in June. We have commitments from 100 company executives to participate, but those failing to report in a timely manner will not be counted. However, our response rate is high enough to reliably represent the lot. Watch for our November issue with our third-quarter results summarized by Michael A. Dubis!

The IB 100 — your source for real perspectives and first-source data.

IB Asks:

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Commentary from our participants:

B-2-B Retailer: It can go either way. Madison could have a big fall if things don’t change. Feds are doing nothing for business — adding more burdens, taking away incentives. They are only trying to keep government spending up — and at the same time taking swings at their major revenue source — business and the high income.

Large Insurer: We are cautiously optimistic. We are controlling what we can control — our attitude and our effort, as well as carefully balancing expense management with operational investment.

Hotelier: Current economic condition would have been worse if government had not acted swiftly. However it’s not enough. Government needs to ensure that the relief gets to small businesses in all shapes and forms, since small businesses are the back bone of the U.S. economy. Federal and state government need to proactively provide information to the businesses as to what kind of help is there and how to get it.

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Financial Planning Firm: Nationally, its going to be a long slog. It’s taking a long time for the federal stimulus to have a meaningful effect and the consumer continues to save versus spend (at least those who are working.) Small business is being squeezed, and with potential new health care programs and costs as well as increased regulatory issues, who wants to be an entrepreneur any more? Getting capital to start a new business or bank loans remains difficult.

Architectural Firm: I see a general interest in spending for long-term value. Firms and government will make investments in construction when a long-term savings is possible.

Bank: Our own economic fortunes are tied to the fortunes of our clients. While we anticipate increasing levels of unemployment (a lagging economic indicator), we are optimistic that we have recognized and prepared for the worst. Our inclination is to think that economic tidings will be “just fine” but certainly not as good as what used to be “normal” for an extended period of time.

B-2-B Mailing House: The U.S. economy will be very stagnant for the next 2-1/2 years. We will see a bottoming out in 18 months with a slow turn around. Unemployment will continue to increase over 12 months, then start a slow comeback. New equipment, etc. has and will continue to slow. Madison will fair better [but] will still feel effects of the U.S. economy.

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Retailer: Store traffic is about the same as last year. However, we have to work harder to close the sale, and each transaction is smaller.

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