The Trump administration’s talk of tariffs is making headlines, but it’s nothing new. Tariffs are one of the oldest taxes in the world.
Since the first Trump term, we have seen how they affected the economy with the tariffs on China, imported steel, and other metals. Prices rose, the shift to American production barely materialized, and supply chains took years to adjust.
They might be just a negotiation tactic, but if tariffs are put into place, I expect prices to rise, businesses will have to adjust, and consumers will likely pay the difference. The question is: what will the long-term benefits be for the U.S. economy? Will it increase U.S. production? Will there be a shift to substitute Chinese, Mexican, or Canadian-made products to products made in other countries?
This will all play out over the next four years, but one thing is certain: none of these adjustments will happen in the short term.
Global dynamism
Here are a few forecasts from executives at E.M. Wasylik Associates in Madison. Michael Stone, a senior international business developer, said 2025 is shaping up to be a dynamic year in international business, with global competition intensifying across sectors. According to Stone, the U.S. manufacturers we support are balancing their reputation for quality with increasing price sensitivity in export markets as international contenders challenge their dominance.
In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is driving transformative investments across key sectors such as energy, construction, hospitality, entertainment, and health care. However, global competition and government incentives for local manufacturing under the “Made in Saudi” initiative are pushing U.S. exporters to optimize logistics and consider local stock or assembly to remain competitive. “Across all sectors, businesses are prioritizing lean manufacturing and operational efficiency as they navigate the challenges of an increasingly competitive global landscape,” Stone said.
David Urintsev, also a senior international business developer, believes that in 2025, international business will be driven by growth in regions like the Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East, where expanding markets and innovation are reshaping opportunities.
“Geopolitical shifts and evolving trade networks are challenging traditional markets while opening doors to new partnerships,” Urintsev said. “Success for companies seeking international growth hinges on agility, cross-border collaboration, and tailoring strategies to the unique needs of rapidly evolving regions.”
Shane Rieder, a global market intelligence lead, said although there is uncertainty about how the Trump administration will affect international business, 2025 will see numerous opportunities for expansion for U.S. companies entering new markets and for foreign firms entering the U.S. market. When there is uncertainty, flexible businesses embrace the challenge and grow in new regions, verticals, or product offerings to meet the changing demand. “Flexibility, innovation, and technology adoption will be key factors in international businesses’ success in 2025 and beyond,” Rieder said.
Larissa Stenglein, international business development associate, said the outlook for the inbound market is positive. “We’ve already seen more foreign companies looking to expand their U.S. operations due to an economic downturn at home and U.S. policies favoring domestic production, and I’d expect that momentum to gain speed in 2025.”
Ken Wasylik is managing director of E.M. Wasylik Associates, Madison, an international business consultancy.
