There are already plenty of uncertainties for farmers, from the weather to supply chain kinks to normal market uncertainties, but when the “at-risk” list extends to flawed public policy, it can be a killer.
Consider the Trump administration’s announcement of a $12-billion aid package for American farmers that would not have been needed if the White House had not hurt them — twice — with short-sighted policies.
In both cases, it’s not just farmers paying the price, but consumers.
Broad deportations pursued by the White House made it difficult for certain types of farmers, especially those who operate Wisconsin’s dairies, to find enough labor to get essential jobs done. Take away every undocumented worker on farms, and many operations wouldn’t survive.
Labor shortages on many farms can be traced to two root causes: First, not enough native-born Americans want to do the physical and often dirty work that comes with farming. Second, as rural populations age, there are fewer workers of any kind.
The second federal policy overreach involves tariffs and soybeans, which are largely used for animal feed but also found in some human foods (Wisconsin-produced Kikkoman soy sauce is one example) as well as many industrial products.
Trump’s imposition of tariffs on a wide variety of products and nations may have hit soybean farmers harder than most. They were beginning to recover from the last “trade war” in the president’s first term by exporting huge amounts of the commodity.
One of those buying countries had been China, which purchased 31.7 million metric tons in 2017 but only 8.2 million metric tons in 2018, early in Trump One. Export totals recovered to 26.8 million metric tons in 2024, according to U.S. Census Bureau figures, but plummeted to 5.9 million metric tons in the first half of 2025.
Imagine the shock when White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the following during an interview that has since drawn baffled responses.
“Another huge win for our farmers,” Leavitt said in describing the $12-billion aid package. “Following his successful meeting with (Chinese) President Xi Jinping in South Korea, President Trump convinced President Xi to continue purchasing, or begin purchasing again, American soybeans, which is something China wasn’t doing under the last administration because they had no respect for President Biden or for the country at the time.”
At a minimum, Leavitt had not reviewed export figures that showed soybean exports to China were higher pre-Trump One, slumped during his first term, rose again during Biden’s tenure then fell again once tariffs took hold this year.
The reason is clear: While tariffs may be good for some sectors of the American economy, they’re not helpful to most farmers.
China has moved on to find other soybean sources in South America, such as Brazil and Argentina. China may never buy as many soybeans from U.S. farmers as it did in the recent past, not just because they found new suppliers but also due to future uncertainties if tariffs hold.
Wisconsin doesn’t rank among the top 10 soybean producing states, so the damage done at home may not be quite as devastating as in neighboring states such as Illinois (No. 1), Iowa (No. 2) and Minnesota (No. 4).
Other domestic “cash crops” have been struck by tariffs, too, which will likely play a role in how farmers plan for the 2026 growing season. How much seed and fertilizer should they buy? Will implementing purchases need to wait for a better year? Buying decisions made on the farm can undermine the economic viability of rural communities.
On the consumer side, if people are worried about rising prices now, they might be more concerned as the side effects of tariffs continue to roll through the economy.
Free markets work unless ill-considered government intervention gets in the way. Whether those policies are immigration laws that overshoot the mark or tariffs that invite retaliation, economic repercussions can follow. And who will pay for that $12-billion farm aid package? All of us.
