Mid-Year Market Review: Bull or Bear Arguments. What to do now?
"I don't know what to do! I personally feel bearish. But then I see markets go up though 3% in two days! So the bulls must be back. Right? Buy, sell, buy, sell ... I'm going to go broke if I keep this up!"
Silly investor, thought he was smarter than the most powerful secular force on the planet. You unfortunately can't time this stuff. Investment means risk for potential reward; it does not mean risk automatically equals reward.
So after about 14 months of an unprecedented run-up in stock prices (similar in precedence to the drop in 2008 and 2009), market volatility has returned.
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Commercials Are Abundant for Roth Conversions — Watch Out!
Taxes are now done! What's next? Roth IRA Conversions.
That's the big thing this year so it seems.... Before 2010, only individuals with modified adjusted gross incomes of $100,000 or less could convert amounts in their traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. However, beginning in 2010, the $100,000 AGI limit on conversions of traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs is eliminated.
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"Lost Decade?" That depends on the definition of markets.
I've grown increasingly tired of the media and misinformed talking heads stating we lost a decade of investment returns. It's simply not true.
Unless, of course, you were not diversified in your portfolio or you failed to rebalance to your risk tolerance. Then, of course, as always, you lost. Nothing has changed when folks think they are smarter than the aggregate capital markets.
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The Line-up for a Second Recession?
I'm an optimist by nature. I have plenty to be optimistic for: we live in one of, if not, the greatest country in the world, receiving the highest standard of living ever known to mankind. I have a wonderful family, I have great friends. I also believe in God, so like the Dali Lama said to Bill Murray in Caddyshack ... I will likely receive full enlightenment on my death bed ... so I have that going for me.
That said, I'm pessimistic about the coming one to five years as it relates to the secular world and what our political and financial leaders consider prudent. There is a line-up of issues that tells me there may be a high probability of another recession. I would love to be wrong, but at minimum, preparation for the possibility seems prudent.
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